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The Dong-A Ilbo |Hong Kyudok Professor of Political Science and International Relations, Sookmyung Women's University; former Deputy Minister for Defense Reform
Russia Strikes after Hybrid Warfare
North Korea will be Watching Biden’s Remarks on No Counterattack
Strengthen Alliances, and Prepare for Public Opinion Manipulation and Cyber Warfare
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is sending additional troops following invasion of Ukraine, turning the situation into the biggest international crisis of 2022. Ukraine showed a strong will to fight back, but the future is uncertain. Earlier, U.S. President Joe Biden’s hasty remarks on military non-intervention and the lack of will on NATO member states served as a catalyst for escalating the situation. In short, it is a failure of the West to deter Russia.
The South Korean government condemned the Russia’s invasion through a statement by a spokesperson and decided to join the international community in sanctions. If the situation persists, it is difficult to avoid our economic losses. The government should establish safety measures for Korean residents abroad, with related ministries, and try to reduce the negative impact on the economy. As for Korea, the world’s fifth largest importer of crude oil, if crisis dragged on, it could be a “perfect storm” that will silence future growth engine. In addition to strengthening the energy alliance with the United States, strategic cooperation with energy powers such as Australia and Qatar should be expanded.
The current crisis in Ukraine is a reminder of the importance of a “hybrid warfare” and “grey zone strategy.” Before the invasion, Russia conducted a hybrid warfare to shake Ukraine by spreading various black propaganda and fake news, manipulating public opinion, and launching various cyberattacks. Russia also used grey zone strategy to deploy troops forward using border training as an excuse for the opponent to hesitate military action. Then, it overturned the prediction at once that military power would not be used directly, which is turning existing military ideas at its advantage.
Now the situation in Ukraine cannot be a fire across river. China and North Korea, which are adjacent to us, will be closely observing how the United States and the international community respond to this situation. The Biden administration cannot afford a second Afghanistan war at a time ahead of the November midterm election. Following the fall of Afghanistan’s capital, Kabul, Biden's leadership could be severely damaged, and the challenges of countries attempting to change the international order are likely to intensify.
What areas will North Korea pay attention to in the Ukraine crisis? It will keep an eye on the chain of events, which the United States imposes strong sanctions against Russia, deploys additional trops to Poland and Germany, and expedites the dispatch of Apache helicopter units. Above all, it is likely to watch that the Biden administration is unable to counter or defeat Russia’s surprise occupation by force. It could be fascinated by the possibility that Russia demands more concession on the United States in exchange for easing military pressure after Russia took over the opponent’s territory with surprise occupation.
Of course, the situation on the Korean Peninsula is different from that of Eastern Europe. However, the Ukraine crisis has many implications for the next government preparing for the future innovation in defense. First, the opponent who emphasized only peace can preemptively use force at any time. Second, if the United States hesitates to engage in a corresponding military intervention, it could lead to a crisis, thus it is required to prevent a power vacuum from occurring with thorough alliance management and cooperation. In addition, it is necessary to increase the offsetting power to cope with the surprise attack.
Third, The core goal of hybrid warfare is the division of national opinion. It is necessary to thoroughly deal with manipulation of public opinion and psychological warfare so that the advancement of North Korea's nuclear and missile technologies does not lead to unnecessary public unrest. Forth, it is necessary to prepare for cyber hacking that can impact on the digital-based society. It is urgent to strengthen the security of major industries such as semiconductor, and national facilities such as subways and nuclear power plants. Also, convergence security linking the military and the National Intelligence Service, government ministries, public institutions and private companies should be strengthened. In light of this, it is necessary It is necessary to build a control tower to manage it as well. In particular, cooperation between alliances in the field of new technologies and supply chain management should be significantly strengthened to the level of the United States and Japan. Even if we have cutting edge equipment such as F-35A, it is useless without the protection capabilities of its built-in software. Lastly, the negative consequences of the hasty introduction of the military recruitment system and reduction of troops should be carefully reconsidered. Ukraine’s defense reforms based on reductions in troops and recrutiment system eventually lead to loss of combat power. It firmly believed that the Russian threat could be defeated with the incorporation of NATO and the help of the United States, but it was misjudgment.
Even in East Asia and the Korean Peninsula, hybrid warfare and grey zone strategy can be called at any time. It is time to reflect on the words of Vegetius, an ancient Roman military strategist, ‘Si Vis Pace, Para Bellum (If you want peace, prepare for war). Only peace through strength is the answer.
Source : https://www.donga.com/news/article/all/20220228/112089444/1
